The NASA This Wednesday, November 16, a disturbing report was released: Seen from space, Earth shows it The Arctic is warming Almost Four times faster than the rest of the planet – not twice as fast as recently estimated.
And hurricanes, typhoons and strengthening hurricanes are part of the same problem.
It should be clarified that both Tornadoes and typhoons like hurricanes They are similar weather phenomena: a typhoon (a storm) characterized by a closed circulation around a low pressure center, which causes strong winds and very heavy rainfall. This storm gets a different name depending on where it originates.
When these storms occur in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the northeastern part of the Pacific Ocean, they are called “Hurricane” (Caribbean, hurricane, evil god name for the people’s divinity). There are “Diphones” If they occur in the Pacific Northwest. Y StormsIf they erupt above and below the equator in the western Pacific.
Globally, about 80 tropical cyclones form each year. However, there are also arctic cyclones.
That in a job NASA Recently made public, it has been decided that we should prepare for it Increasingly threatening hurricane seasonsInitially on the coasts of North America, but later appearing in other cold regions of the Arctic Ocean Arctic.
In other words, they will intensify in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, at least according to the investigations carried out, and continue their course.
And those hurricanes and cyclones will only get stronger as the climate continues to change.
NASA scientists predict a Climate apocalypse In sixty years it will begin to manifest itself, sea ice will be lost, temperatures will rise rapidly, and warmer, wetter air will reach the Arctic.
An unstoppable storm
“When you say, ‘Are hurricanes getting stronger?’ Type five”, expects Dr. Chelsea Parker, Director of the NASA Research Group.
“However, we’re seeing more Atlantic hurricanes each season as Category Three, Category Four or Category Five compared to seasons 40 years ago,” says Parker, associate research scientist at the Interdisciplinary Center for Computer Sciences. Terrestrial (ESSIC).
A 2020 study, published in the journal NatureAnalyzing hurricanes that hit North America between 1967 and 2018, Dr. Parker agrees.
According to that work, in the 1960s, hurricanes lost 75 percent of their strength within 24 hours of making landfall. That has changed today, and the strength of hurricanes that usually cross land Only 50 percent decrease During the first day.
“There is one Great influence of Climate change. The hotter the water, the stronger and more energetic the system will be and it will simply increase in intensity. So the hurricane is getting stronger? The answer is yes. We are increasingly seeing tropical cyclones become categories three, four and five. So actually yes, we are seeing that change In every season In recent years,” concludes Parker, a researcher at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
In 60 years, catastrophic cyclones and hurricanes
“The most intense storms can be dangerous “Shipping activities, oil and gas drilling and extraction, fisheries and ecosystems, and Arctic biodiversity,” says Parker.
“As the sea ice retreats, more area opens up for these activities to take place, but it can also come with more dangerous weather.”
Parker and his colleagues analyzed computer simulations of nine hurricanes that hit the Arctic in the past decade. To understand better Future conditionsThe scientists simulated the Arctic region with even warmer temperatures and less sea ice cover.
“When we include projected future climate change in computer simulations,” Parker said, “we’re actually seeing Huge of Storms“, expects the expert.
At the end of this century, the team discovered Not more than 60 yearsDepending on the characteristics of the storm and the environmental conditions of the region, the wind speed of the storm may increase up to 61.16 kilometers per hour from the present.
A strong hurricane, an unyielding wind
In addition, the maximum intensity of these storms could increase by up to 30% and bring with them heavy rainfall. If hurricanes start raining in spring, The sea ice will begin to melt soon and survive a shorter summer molting season.
To provide a realistic basis for their models, Parker and his colleagues compared their simulations with direct observations of some Arctic storms collected in 2020 by the international MOSAIC expedition. An ice pack traveling at the North PoleIn winter, with state-of-the-art scientific instruments.
“Typically there isn’t a lot of data from Arctic weather stations, so MOSAiC was an important part for us because we were able to use real measurements to validate our model,” Parker said.
“Let’s say ours simulations Current climatic conditions of these storms Realistic And we can trust what the model is doing,” he said.
Arctic hurricanes Scientists need more details to make accurate predictions about how storms will affect already-shrinking sea ice over the next 50 years.
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