January 27, 2023

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La nueva global disputa por el petroleum | Opinion

Las derivaciones del conflict between Russia, Ukraine and NATO Son cada vez más amplias. Además de las consecuencias principally economic de las Sanctions in Russialived with particular intensity in Western Europe, ultimamente se han produced also different results in the political field, sobre todo, in the escenario siempre complejo de Middle East.

La reciente cumbre producida en Teherán between the presidents Vladimir Putin, of Russia, Ebrahim Raisi, of Iran, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of Turkey, not only evidenced the existence of an entente with clear influence in the Middle East but also capable of challenging the western countries, and mainly a los United Statescasi al mismo tiempo en que Joe Biden made a trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia to demonstrate that the United States still has a decisive weight in the region.

Beyond the dialogue around Syria, the main axis of the encounter centered on the conflict in Ukraine. Raisi and Erdogan not only demonstrated their support for Putin (because, in the words of the Iranian governor, confrontation with NATO was “inevitable”). According to information from Washington, the support will be translated into expressions of military aid through the use of Iranian-made drones. El gobierno de Raisi no desmintió esta information que, en caso de ser cierta, llevaría a la war a una nueva fase.

Leaving aside the military aspect, the main result of the encounter in Tehran was produced in economic and energetic terms. The national energy companies of Iran and Russia have signed a memorandum of understandingconsidered as “historic”, according to which the Russian company will participate in the extraction of petroleum and gas in various sites of the Persian nation for a potential value of 40 billion dollars.

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El acuerdo energetico supone toda una novedad para dos gobiernos que han sidos cionados por distintos motivos, con impacto en sus propias economías, y que en la actualidad buscan dar señales de fortaleza (y que, más allá de la predica lanzada constantamente desde Occidente, no necessarily son “amigos” ni tampoco han forjado una unidad indissoluble).

Lo que en todo caso sí podría condarse como una novedad de estos tiempos, marked por conflictos, realignamientos y, sobre todo, incertidumbre en el corto plazo, es Washington’s intention to comprar petroleum of Iranian originin part, to contribute to the baja del precio de un recurso cuya scarcity, promoted by the policy of sanctions applied from the West, vivió una importante alza since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine.

In effect, the Biden government is conducting evaluations to decrease sanctions on Iran under the Joint Integral Action Plan (JCPOA, for its acronym in English). With this initiative, busca obtener un major volumen de petróleo en el mercado global sin aumentar su extraction, un elemento fundamental en la agenda verde del governante. Instead, Tehran will find concessions to continue with its nuclear policy.

Así lo expresó, John Kirby, portavoz del Consejo de Seguridad Nacional, when he announced that a new nuclear agreement with Iran would have “positive collateral effects” that would include lower prices for gasoline. En los mismos terminos se expresó la subsecretaria de Estado Wendy Sherman en una interview el pasado 12 de julio al mentionar que todava era posible conseguir un nuevo accordion con el gobierno de Irán, el que “solo tiene que decir que sí”.

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Sherman concluded his intervention affirming that the Iranians “obtendrían un alivio de las sanciones. Podrían mejorán su economia y vender su petróleo nuevamente y el mundo necesita el petróleo, para poder obtener un buen precio por él (…). La Unión Europea, los franceses, los alemanes, los británicos que han negociado este accordo, junto con Rusia y China, todos quieren este accordo”.

Of course, Biden’s initiative has generated a large internal opposition, from companies that seek to increase oil extraction in the United States to democratic leaders and republicans that oppose a bland policy toward Tehran. Los mismos resquemores se perciben en naciones de Medio Oriente como Israel y Saudi Arabia, cada vez más relacionados en su comun aprensión hacia el régimen Shiíta. Just The recent tour of Biden for these countries could well be an attempt to appease the spirits.

Finally, la disputa geopolitica por el petroleum iraní It constitutes the last step of a plot of totally irrational sanctions that, in an increasingly globalized world, ends up affecting also the governments promoting embargoes and penalties, as currently seen in Europe, and as a pre-announcement of what will surely happen. en el próximo invierno boreal.

Despite the increasing crisis in those who are immersed in the current days due to the lack of energy inputs, the NATO mandates persist in a policy firmly hostile to Russia before favoring dialogue and concrete initiatives of pacification in the trágico escenario ukraniano.

Daniel Kersfeld is doctor in Estudios Latinoamericanos (UNAM). Investigador CONICET-Universidad Torcuato di Tella.