April 1, 2023

Lakeview Gazette

Complete News World

La estrategia de Occidente en Ukraina, al borde del fracaso

WASHINGTON.- Segun el famoso dicho, ningún military plan survivable a su primer contacto con el enemigo. The great theorist of war Carl von Clausewitz used to explain that strategies should be dynamic and constantly change and renovate. In his famous treatise De la guerra, de 1832, von Clausewitz says that some generals “solo consider las actions unilaterales, cuando en realidad la guerra consistse en la continua interacción de los opuestos”. Y hoy Occidente tiene que encarnar esas lecciones en su confrontation with Russia y ajustar su estrategia, que está en peligro de fracasar.

El núcleo de la estrategia de Occidente apunta en dos sentidos: Supply armas, entrenamiento y dinero to Ukraine, ya la vez impose drastic economic sanctions on Russia. En principio, la idea básica sigue teniendo sentido, pero el balance entre both medidas necesita ajustes. It has become clear that the economic war against Russia is not giving nor remotely the expected results. Al presidente Vladimir Putin le importa menos el daño de esas sanctions contra el pueblo ruso que sus efectos sobre el Estado ruso. Y gracias al aumento del price de la energía, la agency Bloomberg News proyecta que Russia will receive extraordinary income from its oil and gas exportswhich this year will reach 285,000 million dollars, compared to 236,000 million in 2021.

Una mujer pasa junto a un cartel en el que se lee “¡Por Rusia! Por los niños de Donbass!” with the letter Z, which has become a symbol of support for the Russian military action in Ukraine, in the center of Moscow on July 11, 2022.KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV – AFP

Meanwhile, Europe faces la crisis peor energetica of the last 50 years.

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The basic problem of the economic war against Russia is that it has no teeth, because it has no energy. The Russian economy is basically energetic. Los ingresoes por exportaciones de petróleo y gas representan casi la mitad del budgeto del gobierno ruso. Y regrettably, The solution will not be that the West wants to buy all the Russian energy, because there is less supply in the global market and that alone will drive the prices even higher. As in the last two decades Europe developed a dangerous addiction to Russian energy, it cannot change supplier rapidly without sinking into a deep and prolonged recession.

Basta con mirar lo que ya está ocurriendo en el continente, donde The price of natural gas is 700% higher than last year. Para colmo, el gasoducto Nord Stream 1por el que Alemania recibe la major parte del gas ruso, será cerrado el 11 de julio para realizarle obras de mantenimiento, y quién sabe, Maybe Putin decides to castigar a Germany and the West and no lo vuelva a abrir… If this happens, Germany, the major economy of Europe, will almost certainly enter recession. The strategy of Putin seems to be to pay a high price to the West and gain time, giving the impression that the fissures of the coalition against him will deepen when the economy of these countries suffers the consequences.

This photo shows the piping and valve systems in a gas receiving station of the gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 and a transfer station in Lubmin, Germany, on June 21, 2022.
This photo shows the piping and valve systems in a gas receiving station of the gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 and a transfer station in Lubmin, Germany, on June 21, 2022.

Los países de Occidente siguan sin darle a este problema la trascendencia y priority que realente tiene. Los Países Bajos tienen un inmenso yacimiento de gas, pero está reduciendo la producción. Alemania parece decidida a pegarse un tiro en el pie y seguir adelante con el chronograma para deactivar las plants de energía nuclear. El gobierno de Biden continues to complicate long-term investments in petroleum and gas, and he is also not finding a way to restore the nuclear agreement with Iran, a move that would dump millions of barrels of crude oil into the world market and almost certainly stabilize its price. Entiendo que existen valid objeciones y dudas sobre todas estas políticas que mentioniono, pero la priority debe ser defeater a Putin.

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Conversely, Putin’s true vulnerability is on the military front. El ejercito ruso has extended its control over the Donbass, in the east of Ukraine, but at an enormous price. Miles de soldieras rusos han muerto, los pertrechos escasean y peor aún, Putin no consigue reclutas. Según un informe de The Economist, el Kremlin no logra replace sus filas Ya los nuevos reclutas les ofrece el triple del sueldo average.

Soldiers of the Russian army march during an action in support of soldiers participating in a special military operation in Ukraine, in the Mamaev Kurgan, a monument commemorating the Second World War in Volgograd, Russia, on Monday, July 11, 2022.
Soldiers of the Russian army march during an action in support of soldiers participating in a special military operation in Ukraine, in the Mamaev Kurgan, a monument commemorating the Second World War in Volgograd, Russia, on Monday, July 11, 2022.Alexander Kulikov – AP

In addition, Russia is suffering the loss of heavy armament that it will cost to replace, especially the one that uses sophisticated technology that previously imported from the West and its allies. Hace poco, la secretaria de comercio norteamericana, Gina Raimondorevealed that the equipment captured by the Russians in the campo de batalla contained microchips in refrigerators and freezers.

Los ledes occidentales should admit que las sanctions económicas lisa y llanamente no van a funcionar, al menos en un marco temporal que sea lógico. Por lo tanto, they should increase the production and supply of energy at the global level as much as possible, but also roll back those sanctions that are more damaging to the West than to Russia. At the same time, the West must multiply its military aid to Ukraine, opting in this case to run major risks. Liberating the blockade of Odessa would be an enormous economic victory for Ukraine and a devastating symbolic defeat for Russia.

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In the northern hemisphere, winter is approaching and in European homes there may be a lack of heating. And in Ukraine, when the steppe is covered with snow, the troops will cost more to dislodge the Russians. El tiempo corre y no a favor nuestro.

Por Farred Zakaria

Traducción de Jaime Arrambide