Factors that explain Bolsonaro’s surprise recovery before the elections and the decisive date

Rio de Janeiro.- When less than two months Brazilian presidential election Conversations with local politicians and analysts reveal two assertions: Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to lead the race, but President Jair Bolsonaro has made a surprise comeback.

If polls last January had given Lula 15 points or more, he would be running for re-election today as president. The difference between the two has narrowed, in some cases, to between six and seven percentage points.

How is this trend explained? The play has many elements, Including releasing resources to reactivate so-called emergency aidIn the middle of the election campaign, the aid comes from this month to the low-income sectors. The government was able to hold the fair in July. A slowdown in the inflation rate, One of the great daily torments of Brazilians today.

In internal reports, major international banks agree that Lula’s chances of winning the first round, a big gamble by the Workers’ Party (PT) and its allies, are lower today than they were a few weeks ago. “Counting valid votes, Lula rose from 48% to 47% and Bolsonaro from 37% to 37.5%,” one of the reports said.

This paper takes an average of six recently published large studies in Brazil and concludes “As the first round margin narrowed, the chances of victory (for Lula) decreased, and today it looks like a tough decision”.

The same report says In a possible runoff between Lula and Bolsonaro, the former president’s valid votes could reach 58% against the current head of state’s 42%. Other polls favor Lula data sheet, what PT gives the candidate 47% of voting intentions in the first round, versus 29% for Bolsonaro.

are permanent President’s Attacks on High Electoral Court (TSE) and Electronic Voting System They don’t steal votes now. Leonardo Barretto, an analyst at Vector Consultancy in Brasilia, explains that if the president continues to push his campaign against the country’s electoral institutions, above all, The following September 7, Brazil’s Independence Day, he chooses a coup-oriented speech.As it did on the same date last year.

“If Bolsonaro says on September 7 that violence is likely to happen in Brazil, he will lose the election. Now you have to understand that dialogue with moderate sectors is necessary,” says Barretto.

Today, both campaigns have clear objectives: the PT continues with the expectation of winning the first round, and the government must prevent that from happening. The mission of Lula and his allies explains Why the former president is trying to get closer to lesser enemies In dispute. If you can get some out of the race, your chances will improve. Secondly, Bolsonaro is doing everything possible to secure a place in the second roundA situation where this is known, refers to changing and manipulating again.

“Bolsonaro needs time so that his government’s infusion of money into the economy and some price cuts, mainly fuel prices, translate into votes. Lula doesn’t have that tool, and his best strategy is to build coalitions and add support to ensure victory,” the Vector analyst commented.

According to their numbers, about 32% of Brazilians today consider Bolsonaro’s government good or very good. To have a real chance of re-election, the analyst asserted, The President must get at least 40%.

In the Brazilian government, the expression “faith dies last” prevails. Bolsonaro’s ministers are confident of a victory that the numbers don’t show, but analysts don’t dare rule it out completely.

In a recent poll by consultancy Genial/Quest, in São Paulo, a key electoral district in the Brazilian election, Lula had 37% voting intention, compared to 35% for the president. Another survey conducted by the G10 Favelas organization and the Favela Diz Institute found that among Brazil’s poorest neighborhoods, the PT’s former president and candidate has 38% support, compared to 31% for Bolsonaro.

Lula’s main support bases are in low-income sectors, a favorite among Brazilians earning up to one minimum wage per month. But even among the poor, the gap between the two candidates is narrowing. This confirms, in the words of Rafael Favetti, a political consultant permanently in circulation in Brasilia and other parts of the country, “It It is an open election and no one can predict who will win”.

The analyst recalled that all presidents seeking re-election since 1985, the year Brazil restored democracy, rose an average of six percentage points in an election year. Bolsonaro, Favetti expands, has already risen to ten points.

“Is the momentum we’re seeing in Bolsonaro’s growth enough to defeat Lula? That is the big question. The less competitive candidates need to score at least ten points for the presidency, so there is a second round. Because the second round A mystery to all“, analyzed Favetti.

In no time, the ever-increasing campaign for Brazilian elections will begin to appear on television. Before the first round, Lula’s electoral coalition will likely have a little more time than Bolsonaro’s, due to the size of his coalition. If there is a second round, both candidates will have the same amount of time on TV. On the other hand, till October 30, the date of possible second round, The government has more time to provide emergency aid and measures are in place to help curb domestic inflation.

“Another important factor Provincial elections. They will have already happened by the end of October, and Bolsonaro has more candidates than Lula. Together, the president’s political partners comprise about 600 mayors,” says Favetti.

If Bolsonaro becomes more competitive with more time, Lula, on the other hand, could make more mistakes while being the favorite. The former president has, in the words of Brazilian political analysts, “more fat to burn,” giving him an even more significant advantage over the president. Instead, Bolsonaro has no margin for error. If he messes up in the next few weeks, he could almost certainly bury his re-election dream.

In recent weeks, the Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes, 2018 elections are crucial. Just as Geraldo Alkmin is a guarantee to eventually moderate the PT government in the eyes of the market, Less popular than four years ago, Guedes has been the Bolsonaro government’s best representative in the private sector. The declarations of General Walter Braga Neto, the candidate for the post of Vice President of the Government, are dizzying.

The vice-presidential candidate is working on a strategy to keep Bolsonaroist bases active and active in extreme militancy. But at this point in the campaign, Guedez could help Bolsonaro capture the votes he lacks to continue to believe he can win a second term. Attacks on the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and TSE have not been eliminated, but neither have they added votes. The economy, pocket and real life of Brazilians now counts.

Pro-democracy demonstrations this week They mattered to Lula, the undisputed leader of the Brazilian progressive sectors, but they didn’t add votes to him either. Analysts believe Bolsonaro will only win if he pulls the strings further and creates a sense in the coming weeks that Brazilian democracy is indeed at stake.

If the more moderate faction of his government can rein him in, the recovery of recent months could be consolidated and the first-round scenario could turn less favorable for Lula. Bolsonaro’s recovery can only be attributed to the economy, but that could be overstated if Bolsonaro’s harsh, radical and authoritarian powers prevail.