Next Sunday, December 19, will be defined in the poll Election of the President of Chile They will meet Gabriel Borick, Left-wing candidate and far-right candidate Jose Antonio Cast. Andy Doe, a political scientist and election data expert, developed an election visual simulator to explore who could be selected based on how the votes of fewer candidates are distributed.
In the first round, no candidate crossed the 30% mark, and the difference between the first two was close to two percentage points. Meanwhile, the votes of the candidates who did not make it to the second round (Franco Paris, Sebastian Chichel, Yasna Provoste and Marco Enriquez-Ominami) reach almost 45%.
How to use the simulator
- To get the percentage of votes of another candidate for Jose Antonio Cost, move the light blue control to the left.
- Move the light blue control to the right to get another candidate’s vote percentage for Gabriel Borick.
- Notice how these votes affect the percentage of Cost and War.
- Use the first light blue control (BT) to simulate the descent of the percentage of votes from Cast to Boric or from Boric to Cast, respectively.
- Turn the simulator to the starting position and click the ‘Reset’ button to explore other scenes.
The context and results of the first round
The presidential candidates who received the most votes in the first round since November 21 are the ones representing the new political constituencies. On the far right, Cast, backed by the Christian Social Front, formed the Republican Party he founded. On the left, Gabriel Borick of the I approve Dignity constituency, which includes the Broad Front and the Communist Party. In this way, the candidates representing the zenith came in the second round: to respond to the demands of the Chileans who took to the streets in October 2019 or to return to Chile before the social upheaval.
In the second round there were representatives of traditional political groups: on the right, Sebastian Chichel fourth (12.8%), and center-left, Yasna Provoste fifth (11.6%). The fragmentation of the vote and the prospect of a second round expose Franco Paris to Chilean politics. This is not his first presidential adventure (in 2013, as an independent candidate, he received 10% support), but despite the fact that he did not have the strength in this context, the 13% who won him third place in the party organization supported him.
One of many possible scenarios
For example, if 100% of the votes of Provost, Enriquez-Ominami and Artes went to war, you can see playing with the simulator as 100% of Chichel’s votes went to Cost and Paris’s votes went to war. In equal parts, the left-wing candidate will be Chile’s next president, committing himself with 53% of the vote.
It should be noted, however, that voting in Chile is not mandatory. Therefore, an important variable not considered in this simulator is the level of participation. Assuming that 47% of the vote is recorded in the first round from November 21, 2021, more or less voting in the December 19 poll will significantly affect the outcome.
About simulator data
The default values used in the simulator are Cast and Borick calculating the percentage of votes received in the first round, and 50% for each of the remaining candidates: Algebraically giving 51% to Cost and 49% to Borick.
Therefore, in the extreme assumption that all the votes of the candidates who did not participate in the second round will be transferred to Boric or Cast, the percentage of those who did not get those votes will be the same as those received in the first round. .