Argentina’s inflation ranks fourth in the world

Argentina once again had one of the world’s highest inflation rates in April, behind Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Lebanon.

Argentina ranked second in Latin America last year, with the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) reporting 108.8% year-on-year growth. Nicolás MaduroBut it is higher than that in the monthly figures for the month: 8.4% and 2.5% reported by the Venezuelan Financial Laboratory and 3.8% reported by the Central Bank of Venezuela, which did not know your data six months ago.

Globally, first place is still occupied by Venezuela with 471%, down from the 504% recorded in March, followed by Zimbabwe at 280% and Lebanon at 263%.

In Latin America Colombia is in third place, but with 12.2% (0.7% in April), Chile 9.9% (0.3%), Peru 8% (0.5%), Uruguay 7, 6% (0.7%), Paraguay 5.3% (0.4%), Bolivia 2.7 (0.2%) and Ecuador 2.4% (0.2 percent).

Meanwhile, in the two largest countries in the region, inflation was 4.1% last year (0.6% in April), Brazil 7.6% (0.1% deflation in the month) in Mexico.

In Europa Occidental, Italy reached 8.3%, Germany 7.2%, France 5.9%, Belgium 5.6%, Spain 4.1% and Luxembourg 3.7%. Among Eastern European countries, Poland scored 14.7%, Estonia 13.5% and Slovenia 9.4%. The country with the highest inflation on the continent is Hungary, which recorded 25% as of March.

In contrast, year-on-year inflation in the United States fell back to 4.9% last month and in China it was just 0.1 percent.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in its Economic Outlook Report (WEO) in April that “global inflation will decline from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% in 2023, due to lower commodity prices, but core inflation (Cor) decreases slowly. In most cases, inflation is unlikely to reach the target before 2025.” Guiding Organization Kristalina Georgieva It expects global inflation to slow to 4.3% in 2024, “still above pre-pandemic levels.”

By region, the fund predicts inflation will rise to 98% in 2023 for Argentina (currently 10 percentage points higher), Colombia at 10.9%, Chile at 7.9% and Brazil at 5%.

According to the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, “Core inflation in major Latin American economies eased to 7% in March after rising to 10% in mid-2022.”

However, the WEO highlighted that “this decline mainly reflects the decline in commodity prices from their highs. Progress in reducing core inflation appears to have stalled, excluding food and energy.”

“Labor markets are tight, employment is firmer than its pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, output is at or above potential and short-term inflation expectations are above central bank targets,” IMF technical experts warned.

“Strong domestic demand, rapid wage growth and widespread price pressures point to the risk that inflation in the region remains unacceptably high,” the report clarified.

However, most countries show a downward trend in the general level of variation in retail prices and even in Venezuela reliable data – recorded by the Venezuelan Financial Observatory, since the central bank stopped disseminating them – revealed a fall from 504. % to 471% in the last month.

In the case A country ruled by Maduro has actually dollarized part of the basketThis is reflected in a lower index than in the past, but currently, according to the OVF, the stability of the exchange rate has affected the slowdown in consumer prices.

A similar trend can be seen in other Latin American countries, even in countries like Colombia and Chile, which show higher statistics than the rest of the pack.

The Argentine government’s interpretation of the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on inflation loses power compared to other regions, where the phenomenon of raw material prices is nuanced. Argentina..

Regarding the official argument that the impact of the drought affected supply, it should be remembered that in 2022, before this severe problem, inflation reached 95%, almost double the previous year.

Much of the region used its central banks’ interest rates to control prices, with fiscal behavior better after strong monetary output during the pandemic.

Argentina has the highest interest rate in the region – second in the world after Zimbabwe – and has failed to moderate inflation expectations, which according to private analysts consulted by the central bank will reach 126% by the end of this year – with 146% in 2024 and a current annual rate of more than 107%.

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