A warning about the impact of currency flows on the business world and the demand for a dollar

The dollar and its conditions are a central concern of businessmen and women in Argentina. Therefore, yesterday’s extreme exchange rate movements and potential in the entire election campaign, the need for a deep discussion of the causes and dynamics that produce them and warnings for social and business network instabilities.

Industrialists, rural people and the owners of the country’s most important institutions parade candidates and documents. The risk of exploding due to the growing distortions the local economy is dragging on.

The Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) is going to recommend today in a short paragraph of its report on industrial news. “Exchange rate tensions at the end of April will impact activity, particularly due to difficulties in supplying inputs and costs and the monetary policy rate. Meanwhile, the impact of drought on the milling and chain industries sectors will continue. They said in the statement.

They added: “Measures aimed at supporting demand for consumer and durable goods will partially offset this situation.”

“Exchange tensions created a strong increase in prices, after tensions in the chains increased due to the acceleration of inflation and difficulties in setting prices.” Pablo Dragan, director of the Manufacturing Company’s Research Center (CEU), said. “We know it’s going to be a tough year because of the drought and the lack of dollars in the central bank.”The economist said he believed there would be “growth” in the annual gauge of the industry through June.

In fact, in March, according to CEU, a 4.1% annual increase was recorded thanks to the drag of the auto and durable goods sector (due to demonetisation expectations) and a lower relative base due to the third wave of Covid. . On the other hand, food and beverages are already red due to poor performance of oilseed milling due to drought.

Already in January, In the UIA, they began to notice that the percentage of small industrial enterprises that warned of a fall in production was more than ten percentage points higher than in January 2021 and 2022. They believe and expect a slowdown in this sector.

“There is no certainty for the future, no forecasts for exchange rates or inflation.” Last Monday at the Economy Ministry they questioned the “fiscal speculation” of Mauricio Macri’s model, said Dragon, citing high financial costs due to high interest rates.

In addition, Dragún mentioned a brake on imports amid a shortage of dollars from the BCRA, a situation the Commerce Secretary routinely denies, showing approved SIRA (import permits) data up to March and established capacity utilization. profession.. According to Trade, in the last six months, the number of requested SIRAs reached 398,830 (a year-on-year increase of 34%). 307,837 permits were approved (+ 3%).

The Argentine Rural Confederation (CRA) yesterday presented a document called A2024, in which they insisted on demanding a single and free exchange rate, the elimination of withholding and the change of the tax structure. “We need to change the tax structure of the country. A new tax scheme and elimination of withholdings is urgently needed for the manufacturing sector, especially in rural areas,” he said. was assured Nation President of the CRA, George Chems. “The fiscal deficit is unsustainable today. We cannot spend more than the resources we have. This exorbitant tax burden is no longer sustainable. Besides spending a lot, you are spending inefficiently. You have to put the house in order.”

“The exchange rate has to be private and free. You have to find stability.” Sems is over.

“In the CRA we share the vision of building a better nation”, pointed out the statement sent by the CRA to the media, then added: “Different from the countries we have experienced in the last two decades, characterized by poverty and the increase of weak labor. During this time, we saw how the productive private sector was displaced by the actions of the national government.

“That is why we present these ideas and proposals, with the aim of creating a renewed Argentina, full of hope and with strong hope for a significantly better future, near and far. We cannot afford to waste time in situations that do not lead to progress and public well-being”, they closed pointing out in the CRA: “The current economic and social model that has been in place for years has reached its limits. It is imperative to move towards a new economy and society based on private production and employment, as opposed to an inefficient, interventionist government that only stifles the private sector”.

At the “institutional” level, the CRA “analyzes the full validity of the national constitution, democracy, representative and republican form of government, independence of powers, more efficient and genuine political and fiscal federalism, functioning of national elections. Unfettered respect for governance and private property.”

Regarding the macro sphere, they said “End fiscal deficit, achieve interim fiscal balance, eliminate inflation, freedom from BCRA and single and free exchange rate.”

On the other hand, to promote agricultural production: “Remove export duties; Changing the national-provincial-municipal tax structure to favor manufacturing and avoid overlapping tax levels; labor reform and training; Employer contributions to reduce labor costs and occupational hazards; freedom of domestic trade; Freedom of foreign trade, open up more export markets for all products and services of the sector; More funds and longer term credit to apply for production; Manufacturing and Environmental Sustainability and Infrastructure for Manufacturing”.

A few days ago, the Argentine Trade Association (AEA) received Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. “We must put an end to hyperinflation, chronic deficits in public accounts, lack of respectable domestic currency, use of different exchange rates, and excessive and distorted tax burden on the sector. Formal, with permanent changes in the rules of the game, among others”, The head of the government of Buenos Aires and a presidential candidate for change were asked.

Earlier, the president of the AEA, Jaime Campos, “stressed the need to respect the institutions of the Republic in the national constitution. Recognition of the separation of powers and the independence of the judiciary”.

Additionally, in a statement to the media, he had said, “It is necessary to provide a clear framework for the performance of the private sector.” Some sources – not confirming the information at AEA – say that In the coming days, Patricia Bullrich will be hearing the same claims and providing answers to business people.