A South African study conducted in the center of the global Omigron uprising provides a shocking indication that the acute phase of the Kovit-19 epidemic may be coming to an end..
The wave of infection moved at an “unprecedented pace” and caused much more mild disease than previous strains as evidenced. A study of patients with Govit-19 disease at a large hospital in a South African city where the first outbreak of the Omigran variant was recorded.
“If this pattern continues and is repeated worldwide, we could see a complete disconnection of the case and death rates.”, The researchers said. It suggests that “Omigron may report the end of the epidemic phase of the Govt epidemic, leading to its local phase.”
Research carried out on Steve Pico Education Hospital Campus, Analyzed 466 patient records from the current wave and 3,976 patient records from previous infections. One of the researchers who worked on it Fareed Abdullah, Director of the Council and Physician of Infectious Diseases of the Hospital.
South Africa, the first country to experience a major Omigron eruption, is closely monitoring the spread of the virus worldwide. The relatively young age of the country’s population and the variability of those admitted to the hospital in the last wave may obscure the severity of the disease., The researchers said.
However, data researchers believe that concerns about Omigran’s high prevalence rates will be alleviated by the mild nature of the disease it causes and the low number of deaths from its infections.
South African hospitals have reached half of what was recorded in previous waves. Weekly excess deaths, a measure of the number of deaths compared to a historical average, were less than one-fifth of its record during epidemics.
If other countries have similar experiences, it could help move the epidemic to a local stage, In which widespread exposure gives immunity to more people, resulting in less serious illness. However, the virus can become a strain that causes more serious illness and easily eliminates antibodies produced by previous infections or vaccines.
The study shows that only 4.5% of Covit-19 patients who were on average 21% of previous waves died while staying in the hospital on the current wave. According to the website of the South African Medical Research Council. Intensive care units had fewer admissions and hospital stays were “significantly lower”.
The income rate rose rapidly, however Began to decline 33 days after first analysis, According to the study. A snapshot of patients admitted to the hospital on December 14 and 15 shows that nearly two-thirds of those diagnosed with Govt-19 have been admitted for other reasons.
“This phenomenon has never been seen before on the Steve Pico Academic Hospital campus or anywhere else in South Africa,” the study notes. It represents a high degree of asymptomatic disease in the Omigran-affected community, ”he said.
– Hospital stays averaged 4 days, up from 8.8 on previous waves.
– The average age of those admitted was 39 years, up from almost 50 in the previous waves.
– The number of patients admitted to the intensive care unit was reduced from 4.3% to 1%.
– Revenue from Delta wave 213 peaked at 108.
The results were “comparable to city-wide trends when cases and admissions were reported from all public and private hospitals,” the researchers said. “There was a lower number of admissions per case, lower mortality rate and lower enrollment rate in the ICU compared to previous waves.”
(c) 2022, Bloomberg – Anthony Schwartz